• OK, it's on.
  • Please note that many, many Email Addresses used for spam, are not accepted at registration. Select a respectable Free email.
  • Done now. Domine miserere nobis.

Climate Change

SilentStorm

Member
Local time
Today 3:14 AM
Joined
Jan 16, 2014
Messages
51
---
Location
Indiana
Is there anyone here who disagrees with anthropogenic global warming? If so, why? I figure if there's anyone with a good argument against it I will find them here.

Secondly, is there anyone who agrees with global warming but thinks that the effects are overestimated?

It's hard to find a lot of good info on the topic because it's been so politicized.
 

Cognisant

cackling in the trenches
Local time
Yesterday 8:14 PM
Joined
Dec 12, 2009
Messages
11,393
---
The effects are consistently underestimated, it's real, it's happening and we have a snowball's chance in hell of stopping it.

When the effects become too severe to ignore we'll probably start terraforming the atmosphere and send sunlight blocking solar sails into orbit.
 

OrLevitate

Banned
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Apr 10, 2014
Messages
784
---
Location
I'm intrinsically luminous, mortals. I'm 4ever
That sounds fun, where's the problem?
 

SilentStorm

Member
Local time
Today 3:14 AM
Joined
Jan 16, 2014
Messages
51
---
Location
Indiana
Yeah there wasn't a doubt in my mind that it was happening. But I did kind of feel like the effects were overestimated. Let's just hope we can develop the technologies to reverse it.
 

Cognisant

cackling in the trenches
Local time
Yesterday 8:14 PM
Joined
Dec 12, 2009
Messages
11,393
---
Well if we don't a runaway greenhouse effect will turn the Earth into something like Venus.
 

Reluctantly

Resident disMember
Local time
Yesterday 9:14 PM
Joined
Mar 14, 2010
Messages
3,135
---
I disagreed with it for awhile because of the silly arguments I'd here from people, mainly put forth in a political context. But someone who was scientifically knowledgeable about it explained that carbon dioxide absorbs more radiation (or kinetic energy/heat) from the sun over oxygen and reflects it back to the Earth. This is a problem because as we increase the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the temperature of the planet is increasing at a much faster rate compared to history; we could end up with unsustainable ecosystems.
 

Direwolf

Active Member
Local time
Today 5:14 PM
Joined
Sep 23, 2014
Messages
280
---
Location
Australia
Ah humans will be fine. We eill think of something. However it is a good chance that whatever it is will either be to late or made known to inly a select few to minimize public fright alloeing for a clean execution of whatever plant they have. Either way the general populace wont know till its to late.

Well this is just me but i would rather be kept blissfully unaware. Knowing i was going to die a year from now or whatever what drive me insane.
 

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
I disagreed with it for awhile because of the silly arguments I'd here from people, mainly put forth in a political context. But someone who was scientifically knowledgeable about it explained that carbon dioxide absorbs more radiation (or kinetic energy/heat) from the sun over oxygen and reflects it back to the Earth. This is a problem because as we increase the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the temperature of the planet is increasing at a much faster rate compared to history; we could end up with unsustainable ecosystems.

This ^ but...


Different matter absorbs different frequencies of light. CO2 will absorb IR waves and make heat. The ground absorbs a portion of regular light that CO2 does not absorb and then has extra energy to emit IR back away from the earth. CO2 absorbs that light as it tries to leave producing heat near the earths crust heating our lower atmosphere.

Hopefully that makes sense so far.

The argument against this is that the increased CO2 exists evenly throughout the atmosphere and the IR coming from the sun will absorb nearer the top of the atmosphere away from the crust allowing the heat to dissipate into the outer atmosphere more readily. With the increased CO2 much of the IR from the Sun never reaches the earths crust to heat it thereby compensating for the heating affect of the of what I described in my first paragraph.

But how much IR is the sun really emitting? Near 50% of its energy is in IR but CO2 only absorbs a narrow band of IR.

[BIMG]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight#mediaviewer/File:Solar_spectrum_en.svg[/BIMG]

So now we have to determine exact measurements to determine who is right so we look at the global temperature budget.

[BIMG]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_energy_budget#mediaviewer/File:The-NASA-Earth%27s-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg[/BIMG]

Now we are speculating but the earth is absorbing 163.3WM2 that could potentially be a heating of the earths crust but is also absorbing 169.9WM2 of IR before it gets to the crust and dissipating it in space.


*************

look at that sunlight spectrum chart and look at the areas that say H20 vs the little spot that says CO2. Notice the yellow being the unabsorbed energy and the red being what is left. Nearly all the energy is absorbed by H20 and almost none is absorbed by CO2.

The argument against Global Warming is often that H20 is the main contributor to the green house affect and the CO2 will barely be registerable in comparison.

The coutner to that, as it is stated by some, that because CO2 is increasing the temperature the H20 in the atmosphere will increase causing a further increased green house effect. Increased temperatures cause the water to evaperate into the atmosphere.

The counter to that is that H20 is already absorbing all the energy it can and it is also the only thing transfering energy from the oceans to the upper atmospher and causing cloud cover to cool the earth therefore the H20 will reduce the effect of global warming that might occur by CO2 increases.


Another interesting thing is that we have less than 1% CO2 in the atmosphere.


CONCLUSION:
Green House Gases are not going to be world ending but even small degrees of temperature can cause ice to melt on land which goes into the ocean and causes the oceans to rise. This will be bad for our coastlines.

The bigger and more serious issue is the plankton that is dying because of the increased CO2 in the oceans that is acidifying the oceans. Plankton is a major source of food for the fish in the oceans and also producing a large part of the worlds oxygen.
 

Yellow

for the glory of satan
Local time
Today 1:14 AM
Joined
Sep 2, 2009
Messages
2,897
---
Location
127.0.0.1
I think it is impossible to deny that global warming is happening. We're still coming out of a little ice age. But personally, I think our role in the warming is often presented in the more extreme end of the spectrum of possibilities. After all, our projections are based on a geologically short period of high carbon emissions, and while we have the means to know of climate change events and their chemistry, the exact timelines have a lot of wiggle room.

However, it seems that a large body of evidence exists to support AGW in general. I found an aggregate study addressing conclusions about AGW over the last 20 years.

That being said, it's never good when science and politics mix because it affects the body of research. With so much money being thrown at climate change, and specifically AGW, there exists the potential for scientists to fail to thoroughly investigate some threads of evidence for fear of jeopardizing their funding.
 

Sockrates

Active Member
Local time
Today 8:14 AM
Joined
Jan 29, 2015
Messages
242
---
Location
Right Behind You
I think it is impossible to deny that global warming is happening. We're still coming out of a little ice age. But personally, I think our role in the warming is often presented in the more extreme end of the spectrum of possibilities. After all, our projections are based on a geologically short period of high carbon emissions, and while we have the means to know of climate change events and their chemistry, the exact timelines have a lot of wiggle room.

However, it seems that a large body of evidence exists to support AGW in general. I found an aggregate study addressing conclusions about AGW over the last 20 years.

That being said, it's never good when science and politics mix because it affects the body of research. With so much money being thrown at climate change, and specifically AGW, there exists the potential for scientists to fail to thoroughly investigate some threads of evidence for fear of jeopardizing their funding.

The end of your comment is important. You will find, if you dig long enough, studies of honest scientist who make the claim that that humans are hardly affecting the process, maybe speeding it up slightly.

It's a cycle of the Earth's, humans may parish but the blue ball will still be floating away.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period-basic.htm
 

Brontosaurie

Banned
Local time
Today 9:14 AM
Joined
Dec 4, 2010
Messages
5,646
---
i'm not denying that it happens. however, i think there's a bit of panic and myopia surrounding it. also the notion that the ecosystem either 1. is a static ideal entity or 2. has intrinsic value or 3. has some sort of "right" not to be violated by humans, or any combination, is intensely moralist, hypocritical and provocative.

it's one of those things where a legit issue is overshadowed by try-hard good guys who abhor analysis in favor of dogma and tribal identity . like feminism, anti-racism, veganism. honestly i think "ism"-ifying these things makes it harder to actually implement and integrate them.
 

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
i'm not denying that it happens. however, i think there's a bit of panic and myopia surrounding it. also the notion that the ecosystem either 1. is a static ideal entity or 2. has intrinsic value or 3. has some sort of "right" not to be violated by humans, or any combination, is intensely moralist, hypocritical and provocative.

it's one of those things where a legit issue is overshadowed by try-hard good guys who abhor analysis in favor of dogma and tribal identity . like feminism, anti-racism, vegaanism. honestly i think "ism"-ifying these things makes it harder to actually implement and integrate them.

We'll have to convert them all to rationalism.

The isms are fine and help in identifying and unifying thought and action so that people can understand eachothers position at least on a more general basis and solve issues as a unit.

The issue is with the uninvolved human psyche and personalities that adhere to blind faith and emotional based thinking. 'Follow your heart' thinking is a step backwards in society and yet it is promoted in the media as the only appropriate method of thought...oor lack of thought...
 

Brontosaurie

Banned
Local time
Today 9:14 AM
Joined
Dec 4, 2010
Messages
5,646
---
We'll have to convert them all to rationalism.

The isms are fine and help in identifying and unifying thought and action so that people can understand eachothers position at least on a more general basis and solve issues as a unit.

The issue is with the uninvolved human psyche and personalities that adhere to blind faith and emotional based thinking. 'Follow your heart' thinking is a step backwards in society and yet it is promoted in the media as the only appropriate method of thought...oor lack of thought...

i think ism-ism is an aspect of emotional opinion formation.

i seldom feel the need for isms to explain my stance and more often than not, trying produces ludicrous results; for example trying to briefly state my ethical/political views using one of the terms "anarchism", "liberalism" or "social liberalism" will reliably provoke strawman retorts, because people are primed to interpret the isms by association rather than core logic. anarchism will be interpreted as "oh so you're one of those rebels without a cause who wanna remove state authority in a flick and see what happens?". liberalism will be interpreted as "aha, so you're one of those economist brats who want to appease multinational corporations while giving individual citizens no freedom, since you're too boring yourself to use freedom anyway (and if you're not, there's bribe)?". social liberalism will be interpreted as "aha, you're one of those turncoat smartasses who think the left-right schism can be resolved with arbitrary compromise?". and the list goes on.

i'm not saying people are usually very keen on absorbing challenging thoughts even if one uses more elaborate reasoning, illustrate principles etc... but then at least we're not operating in an arena that is exclusively evolved to accommodate for sublimated tribal dirt-slinging within civilized society and policy discourse.

the ism is necessary only when one needs something to ring true without being true, by merit of authority, tradition and popularity. which is when one is a wrong-ass fucker indeed.

any progressive organizational history or capacity of isms is likely illusory. explicit language is in general only a small fraction of human reasoning, communication, opinion, and grouping. also we are, more often than not, governed by patterns which we refuse to even acknowledge in ourselves. decisions, especially important ones, are always made with respect to complex interaction of external factors influenced by universal gut instinct and a looming cultural body of experience and thought, never from straight ism. there's reason to believe that the extreme reductive simplicity of method ideologies like communism and liberalism are enforced by a need to keep the general public away from extremely complex and important decision-making. it's keeping us occupied, fills our "politics talk" slot with stupid kindergarten dilemmas instead of letting us model real-world dynamics.
 

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
i think ism-ism is an aspect of emotional opinion formation.

purely emotional? My mind would implode without categorization to help simplify thought on some level.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_perception

Categories are important because they determine how we see and act upon the world. As William James noted, we do not see a continuum of "blooming, buzzing confusion" but an orderly world of discrete objects. Some of these categories are "prepared" in advance by evolution: The frog's brain is born already able to detect "flies"; it needs only normal exposure rather than any special learning in order to recognize and catch them. Humans have such innate category-detectors too: The human face itself is probably an example. So too are our basic color categories, although one implication of the Sapir–Whorf hypothesis (Whorf 1956; also called the "linguistic relativity" hypothesis) might be that colors are determined by how culture and language happen to subdivide the spectrum.

But if one opens up a dictionary at random and picks out a content word, chances are that it names a category we have learned to detect, rather than one that our brains were innately prepared in advance by evolution to detect. The generic human face may be an innate category for us, perhaps even the various basic emotions it can express, but surely all the specific people we know and can name are not. "Red" and "yellow" may be inborn, but "scarlet" and "crimson"?
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121219133321.htm

I'd argue that the brain is designed to categorize in order to understand anything and we cannot simply stop because it might indirectly prevent people from adhering to thoughtless and emotional belief systems.
 

Brontosaurie

Banned
Local time
Today 9:14 AM
Joined
Dec 4, 2010
Messages
5,646
---
purely emotional? My mind would implode without categorization to help simplify thought on some level.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_perception


http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121219133321.htm

I'd argue that the brain is designed to categorize in order to understand anything and we cannot simply stop because it might indirectly prevent people from adhering to thoughtless and emotional belief systems.

sure, it's tempting to call ism simply an instance of categorization and thus a cognitive necessity. but somehow i think that this approach overlooks some very relevant properties of ism as social phenomenon.

an ism is not simply a shorthand for some line of reasoning. it also connotes an axiomatic conviction and an unbridgeable conflict of values. it's one of the things that impede rational progress, since it allows us to conflate logic with value and thus obscures the possibility of a universal secular ethics based on the essential conditions of life/consciousness.

and if we knew which ism was the right one, it wouldn't have to be an ism. it would be as self-evident as mathematics and exert a very modest cognitive load. it's anarchism btw :D

wow i have written a lot. some of it is probably stupid. it's entirely possible that my criticism of the ism is impotent, assault on decoy/cannonfodder/low-cascade
 

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
sure, it's tempting to call ism simply an instance of categorization and thus a cognitive necessity. but somehow i think that this approach overlooks some very relevant properties of ism as social phenomenon.

an ism is not simply a shorthand for some line of reasoning. it also connotes an axiomatic conviction and an unbridgeable conflict of values. it's one of the things that impede rationalist progress, since it allows us to conflate logic with value and thus obscures the possibility of a universal secular ethics based on the essential conditions of life/consciousness.

and if we knew which ism was the right one, it wouldn't have to be an ism. it would be as self-evident as mathematics and exert a very modest cognitive load. it's anarchism btw :D

wow i have written a lot. some of it is probably stupid. it's entirely possible that my criticism of the ism is impotent, assault on decoy/cannonfodder/low-cascade

It is impossible for rational thought to exist without a value system deriving judgment and objectives to direct logic. Logic is pointless without an objective/feeling/belief defined by human meaning which is not inherent in the universe. I only see your argument as a Fi favoritism in opposition to Fe.
 

Brontosaurie

Banned
Local time
Today 9:14 AM
Joined
Dec 4, 2010
Messages
5,646
---
It is impossible for rational thought to exist without a value system deriving judgment and objectives to direct logic. Logic is pointless without an objective defined by human meaning which is not inherent in the universe. I only see your argument as a Fi favoritism in opposition to Fe.

misunderstanding, partly because of vague language in my previous post.

i'm not talking about an objectiveless, valueless, rationality. that indeed is an oxymoron. i'm talking about a rationality informed by values which are tied to analytic truth about humanity, or even existence; values which can be arrived at by logic and empirical sciences. today we are accustomed to thinking of values as "the point where discussion between adults ends and sacred, impeccable subjectivity entails". this need not be the case; it is a symptom of conflict and imperfect knowledge. and i think the prevalence of "ism" thinking is one obstacle that we should overcome in order to install a unitary ethics.

hume's fork is a huge myth. pet peeve of mine.

funny you should call my reasoning Fi. to me it's globally agreed value from logical analysis, Ti-Fe to da max.
 

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
Moderators: Can Bronto and my 'ism' discussion be moved? I apologize for the tangent.
 

Pyropyro

Magos Biologis
Local time
Today 3:14 PM
Joined
Feb 3, 2012
Messages
4,044
---
Location
Philippines
This ^ but...


Different matter absorbs different frequencies of light. CO2 will absorb IR waves and make heat. The ground absorbs a portion of regular light that CO2 does not absorb and then has extra energy to emit IR back away from the earth. CO2 absorbs that light as it tries to leave producing heat near the earths crust heating our lower atmosphere.

Hopefully that makes sense so far.

The argument against this is that the increased CO2 exists evenly throughout the atmosphere and the IR coming from the sun will absorb nearer the top of the atmosphere away from the crust allowing the heat to dissipate into the outer atmosphere more readily. With the increased CO2 much of the IR from the Sun never reaches the earths crust to heat it thereby compensating for the heating affect of the of what I described in my first paragraph.

But how much IR is the sun really emitting? Near 50% of its energy is in IR but CO2 only absorbs a narrow band of IR.

[BIMG]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight#mediaviewer/File:Solar_spectrum_en.svg[/BIMG]

So now we have to determine exact measurements to determine who is right so we look at the global temperature budget.

[BIMG]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_energy_budget#mediaviewer/File:The-NASA-Earth%27s-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg[/BIMG]

Now we are speculating but the earth is absorbing 163.3WM2 that could potentially be a heating of the earths crust but is also absorbing 169.9WM2 of IR before it gets to the crust and dissipating it in space.


*************

look at that sunlight spectrum chart and look at the areas that say H20 vs the little spot that says CO2. Notice the yellow being the unabsorbed energy and the red being what is left. Nearly all the energy is absorbed by H20 and almost none is absorbed by CO2.

The argument against Global Warming is often that H20 is the main contributor to the green house affect and the CO2 will barely be registerable in comparison.

The coutner to that, as it is stated by some, that because CO2 is increasing the temperature the H20 in the atmosphere will increase causing a further increased green house effect. Increased temperatures cause the water to evaperate into the atmosphere.

The counter to that is that H20 is already absorbing all the energy it can and it is also the only thing transfering energy from the oceans to the upper atmospher and causing cloud cover to cool the earth therefore the H20 will reduce the effect of global warming that might occur by CO2 increases.


Another interesting thing is that we have less than 1% CO2 in the atmosphere.


CONCLUSION:
Green House Gases are not going to be world ending but even small degrees of temperature can cause ice to melt on land which goes into the ocean and causes the oceans to rise. This will be bad for our coastlines.

The bigger and more serious issue is the plankton that is dying because of the increased CO2 in the oceans that is acidifying the oceans. Plankton is a major source of food for the fish in the oceans and also producing a large part of the worlds oxygen.

you might also want to look at methane (CH4)
 

Pyropyro

Magos Biologis
Local time
Today 3:14 PM
Joined
Feb 3, 2012
Messages
4,044
---
Location
Philippines
It be all natural. Non man made.

Are you sure about that? I'm pretty sure you can get methane from normal agricultural products and waste.

Just in case I'm misunderstood, my concern here is that these greenhouse gases don't exist on their own in the atmosphere. They're basically in a "soup" so to speak.

One should take into account the gases' individual effects and also how they interact with each other in order to have a good idea on how climate change is happening.
 
Last edited:

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
Are you sure about that? I'm pretty sure you can get methane from normal agricultural products and waste.

Just in case I'm misunderstood, my concern here is that these greenhouse gases don't exist on their own in the atmosphere. They're basically in a "soup" so to speak.

One should take into account the gases' individual effects and also how they interact with each other in order to have a good idea on how climate change is happening.

Anything that decomposes including plant life can potentially produce methane. Natural wetlands produce the most.

Much of the methane in the ground is being burned to make H20, CO, CO2 etc...

As far as cattle and bio-decomposition in landfills... whats to be done about that? 'Personally I don't call it man-made but instead a byproduct of living'

currently 1.8ppm or 0.00018% methane in the atmosphere

Methane has stabalized

http://www.epa.gov/methane/images/methane.gif
 

Pyropyro

Magos Biologis
Local time
Today 3:14 PM
Joined
Feb 3, 2012
Messages
4,044
---
Location
Philippines
Anything that decomposes including plant life can potentially produce methane. Natural wetlands produce the most.

Much of the methane in the ground is being burned to make H20, CO, CO2 etc...

As far as cattle and bio-decomposition in landfills... whats to be done about that? 'Personally I don't call it man-made but instead a byproduct of living'

currently 1.8ppm or 0.00018% methane in the atmosphere

Methane has stabalized

http://www.epa.gov/methane/images/methane.gif

Honestly, that's my question too. Why aren't we harvesting CH4? Methane is a decent fuel and can provide some side income/extra resources for agri-based countries while reducing their greenhouse footprint at the same time.

The concentration is a bit high for comfort but yeah, stabilization is a good thing.
 

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
Honestly, that's my question too. Why aren't we harvesting CH4? Methane is a decent fuel and can provide some side income/extra resources for agri-based countries while reducing their greenhouse footprint at the same time.

The concentration is a bit high for comfort but yeah, stabilization is a good thing.

We do to an extent.
http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/1296/making-the-most-of-manure

Manure is a small part though. I don't know if anyone thought of doing it for human food waste instead of sending it to a land fill.
 

Pyropyro

Magos Biologis
Local time
Today 3:14 PM
Joined
Feb 3, 2012
Messages
4,044
---
Location
Philippines

Ex-User (11125)

Prolific Member
Local time
Today 8:14 AM
Joined
Feb 8, 2015
Messages
1,532
---
idk what to think of global warming anymore. i looked into it a few years ago, apparently there was an email scandal or sth, if i remember correctly, statistics were being modified by some scientists.
i saw a few debates on global warming, but one side of the argument would always be incredibly dumb or uninformed compared to the other...eg. this debate between monckton and denniss lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma6cnPLcrtA
if anyone knows any good, unbiased scientific papers/books/articles on the subject then please recommend them to me
 

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
I should also include my hypothesis that although the average temp caused by greenhouse gasses is increasing worldwide, about 50% of the gains would be during the night and the day would only gain at 50% of the speed represented by the average increases. Essentially the heat transfer out of the earth is slowed and making nights retain heat longer while more sunlight is filtered during the day so that the gains are less. I have not found any graph that debunks or proves this...


For example, Venus is near all greenhouse gas atm and its temp from day to night does not change more than 1 deg c.
 

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
idk what to think of global warming anymore. i looked into it a few years ago, apparently there was an email scandal or sth, if i remember correctly, statistics were being modified by some scientists.
i saw a few debates on global warming, but one side of the argument would always be incredibly dumb or uninformed compared to the other...eg. this debate between monckton and denniss lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma6cnPLcrtA
if anyone knows any good, unbiased scientific papers/books/articles on the subject then please recommend them to me

Are you more interested in the physical nature of how it works or the historical and statistical proof of temperature increases?
 

Ex-User (11125)

Prolific Member
Local time
Today 8:14 AM
Joined
Feb 8, 2015
Messages
1,532
---
Are you more interested in the physical nature of how it works or the historical and statistical proof of temperature increases?

im looking for a detailed comparison between global warming and ancient climatic changes(which were also caused by greenhouse gases) that shows how they differ without any vagueness, exaggeration or bias. as for statistics, i cant trust that stuff for the reason mentioned in my previous post
 

Grayman

Soul Shade
Local time
Today 12:14 AM
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
Messages
4,419
---
Location
You basement
im looking for a detailed comparison between global warming and ancient climatic changes(which were also caused by greenhouse gases) that shows how they differ without any vagueness, exaggeration or bias. as for statistics, i cant trust that stuff for the reason mentioned in my previous post

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Why-does-CO2-lag-temperature.html

I wonder what you will choose to make of this. There is a lot of heated discusssioin around the fact that CO2 rises 'after' the temperatures rises indicating that the Temperature has historically been the cause of CO2 going up.

I personally think that CO2 does not elevate the rise of temperature to the extent they claim it does, at least not a whole lot. I think a lot of it has to do with increased water in the air during hotter periods. In cold times the air cannot hold as much water and so it does not contribute to the greenhouse effect as much and during warm times the air can get thick with water and it is like a nice spa:)
Also increased CO2 with the temperature changes would be expected with increased animal life after the ice age periods... but that is just otu of my ass

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Why-does-CO2-lag-temperature.html
 

Ex-User (11125)

Prolific Member
Local time
Today 8:14 AM
Joined
Feb 8, 2015
Messages
1,532
---
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Why-does-CO2-lag-temperature.html

I wonder what you will choose to make of this. There is a lot of heated discusssioin around the fact that CO2 rises 'after' the temperatures rises indicating that the Temperature has historically been the cause of CO2 going up.

I personally think that CO2 does not elevate the rise of temperature to the extent they claim it does, at least not a whole lot. I think a lot of it has to do with increased water in the air during hotter periods. In cold times the air cannot hold as much water and so it does not contribute to the greenhouse effect as much and during warm times the air can get thick with water and it is like a nice spa:)
Also increased CO2 with the temperature changes would be expected with increased animal life after the ice age periods... but that is just otu of my ass

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Why-does-CO2-lag-temperature.html
finally got around to reading the entire thing(with all the comments)...some of the comments were even more interesting than the original post(the ones by chris and boba10960). thanks for sharing this, ive learnt a lot..
 

ProxyAmenRa

Here to bring back the love!
Local time
Today 5:14 PM
Joined
Sep 30, 2009
Messages
4,668
---
Location
Australia
In my spare time I was helping some environmental engineering colleagues (at a different institution) in improving the accuracy of their climate models. In modelling I break the time series into three sets: coefficient estimation or calibration of boundary conditions set, a calibration set to gauge model performance in order to make changes based on accuracy statistics and a validation to set to estimate the final model's performance. To improve their model's accuracy I weighted the fundamental features of the time series. Through an iterative process of trial and error, I eventually improved the model's ability to replicate the first two sets of data. However, at no point in time could the model replicate the forecast set's time series. Ergo, the model can not be used to predict the future and the calibration of the model to the first two sets of the data was spurious.

My colleagues' communications with other research groups revealed that many people had similar problems. Reviewers of papers highlighted that my colleagues should average the model's outputs in the region in question and if the mean deviates from the historical mean a bias factor should be added to the outputted mean. This plainly absurd because it obfuscates the inaccuracy of the model and the final results still can't be used to conduct sensitivity analyses for long term water and energy infrastructure projects.

As an alternative, I proposed scrapping the climate model and conducting sensitivity analyses with historical time series with a range of scenarios involving greater frequencies of calamitous events and put a greater emphasis on risk management.
 

Yellow

for the glory of satan
Local time
Today 1:14 AM
Joined
Sep 2, 2009
Messages
2,897
---
Location
127.0.0.1
As an alternative, I proposed scrapping the climate model and conducting sensitivity analyses with historical time series with a range of scenarios involving greater frequencies of calamitous events and put a greater emphasis on risk management.
What was their response?
 

ProxyAmenRa

Here to bring back the love!
Local time
Today 5:14 PM
Joined
Sep 30, 2009
Messages
4,668
---
Location
Australia
What was their response?

Well, they agreed with me. It is the old school way taught in our bachelors degrees.

I was surprised at how inaccurate climate models are when they have been touted as the holy grail for so long. Another research I know is using finite element boundary method to calculate wave energy a long the eastern coastline. He will suffer the same problems.
 
Top Bottom